Quantifying the impact of Russia–Ukraine crisis on food security and trade pattern: evidence from a structural general equilibrium trade model

Purpose Considering the importance of Russia and Ukraine in agriculture, authors quantify potential impact Russia–Ukraine conflict on food output, trade, prices security for world. Design/methodology/approach The mainly use quantitative structural multi-country multi-sector general equilibrium trade model to analyze impacts global pattern security. Findings First, found that would lead soaring agricultural prices, decreasing volume severe insecurity especially countries rely heavily grain imports from Russia, such as Egypt Turkey. Second, major production United States Canada may even benefit conflict. Third, restrictions upstream energy fertilizer will amplify negative effects insecurity. Originality/value This study analyzed effect based sector linkages framework. With a clearer demonstration influence about inherent mechanism fewer parameters compared with traditional Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) models, showed integrated welfare across sectors countries.